Sitting on a Nickel Mine: A Spatial Analysis of Anti-Mining Ethnic Mobilization in the Philippines

with Nakissa P. Jahanbani, Combating Terrorism Center, United States Military Academy at West Point

Identity and culture can serve as powerful impetuses for mobilization, yet they may not be enough to induce mobilization. Given the increasing importance of identity and ethnicity globally, we ask the question: why do some ethnic groups mobilize and others do not? We employ a geographically-weighted regression (GWR) to the study of ethnic group mobilization against mining operations from 2000 to 2017 in the Philippines to attempt to answer this question. Informed by the contentious political literature on grievance, we believe that the emergence of ethnic protests can be linked to structural factors (economic inequality and unequal political opportunities). We find that ethnic fractionalization has a positive significant effect on anti-mining protests in the Philippines overall, but the relationship between grievance and protest varies over spatial units. Through this study, we not only contribute to our knowledge of grievance and mobilization, but also demonstrate how spatial analytical methods can facilitate a better understanding of important phenomena in social science. We endeavor to apply this technique to understanding variation in mining protests in other countries with large foreign mining operations such as Guatemala in future research.

Terrorism and Political Violence

with Amira Jadoon, Clemson University, and Nakissa P. Jahanbani, Combating Terrorism Center, United States Military Academy at West Point

Another strand of my research focuses on terrorism and political violence, with female participation and the Philippines as my primary research areas. While there are important differences between “violent” and “non-violent” non-state actors, there are similar processes and questions underlying these areas of research. For example, why do people choose to participate in terrorist organizations and what is the impact of political opportunity structures on their choices? What strategies (such as framing) do terrorist organizations employ to recruit new members? What strategies do terrorist organizations choose to try to achieve their goals? How and why do groups’ strategies change over time?

• Winning Hearts and Minds? US Troop Contact Abroad and Host Nation Public Opinion

Studies about the US military’s presence abroad often focus on the role of social movements, the media, and host nation politicians in shaping local opinion about the US military. However, the US military is also an agent engaged in framing through both messaging and community-building activities, such as festivals held for the community on base. How effective are these tools in fostering positive civilian-military relations? Although important studies in the base politics literature on this topic have been published in recent years, the role of troop contact remains unclear as studies do not specify the nature of the contact. I explore the role of US troop contact, operationalized through attendance at base festivals, on Japanese public opinion towards and proclivity to protest against the US military, employing surveys of Japanese and Okinawan respondents. I find that generally, those who report attending are more likely to be associated with positive views of the US military presence but a greater likelihood that someone will participate in activism against the US military in Japan. These results suggest that while base festivals may be achieving their intermediate goals of facilitating positive civilian-military relations, while failing to curtail anti-US-military activism.